Legend For Phase Chart:
1: Recovery-1: Warning
2: Accumulation-2: Distribution
3: Bullish-3: Bearish

Saturday, September 20, 2008

US Market



We have an incredible market recovery thanks to a potential rescue package from the US regulators. The US government plans to restore calm to the financial system by rescuing banks from billions of dollars in bad debt.

A temporary ban on short selling of selected financial stocks likely added to the up move as traders cover their short position. All in, the Dow managed to rally 370 points to close at 11388.

The index is down just 0.3% this week. If not for all the effort by central banks around the world, the scenario would have been worst.

The index is still in “Bearish” territory and is resting at the 50 day moving average. Hopefully the rescue package can be approved next week to lend further support to the fragile market.

Sunday, September 14, 2008

Singapore Market



The Singapore market ended the week at 2570. The US government intervention only managed to spur the market on Monday by 120 points and we are actually down 4 points for the week. Traders are using any rebound as a means to get out of the market which is not a good sign for the bulls.

The STI is still firmly in “Bear” territory. The market did try to climb out of the down trend but the moved ended on 4 Jun 08. The market has stayed in “Bear” phase for 72 consecutive trading days.

US officials have been working overtime this week to cook up something to help Lehman Brothers. Hopefully they can make it in time before the Asian market open on Monday.

Sunday, September 7, 2008

US Financial Sector



It was another terrible week for the stock market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a low of 11038 before recovering to end at 11220.

There was news that US Government are working out plans to help mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and the plan may come out during the weekend. That news help Fannie Mae to rise 9.66% and Freddie Mac to rise 3.03% during the regular session. However, the aftermarket action suggests that both stocks will be hammered come Monday. Freddie Mac was down 20% aftermarket Fannie Mae was down 21% in aftermarket action.

The financial sector recovered on Friday. The XLF rose 3.62%. The XLF managed to stay above its 50 day moving average for the whole of this week. An incredible feat given that Dow was down 2.7% for the week.

The XLF is now in “Recovery” mode and it has been oscillating between “Bearish” and “Recovery” phase for the past few months. Unless it can overcome the 200 day moving average and moved to “Accumulation” phase, the advantage still goes to the Bears.