STI Trend Updates

Singapore managed to gain 29.98 points yesterday to close at 3025.20. That was a good performance given the fact the Shanghai market went down by 194 points, slightly more than 5% losses.

If you look at the phase table for STI index, it is now in "Recovery" phase. In actual fact, it has managed to stay in "Recovery" phase for 3 days now. This is the first time the index is able to claw back to "Recovery" phase in 2008.

STI	Close	Phase	50 DMA	200 DMA
1/2/2008	3461.219971	-2	3536.371582	3505.101807
1/3/2008	3397.060059	-2	3529.352783	3506.520264
1/4/2008	3437.790039	-2	3525.255859	3508.125
1/7/2008	3353.060059	-2	3518.411133	3509.111816
1/8/2008	3338.27002	-2	3512.194336	3509.706055
1/9/2008	3344.530029	-3	3504.942139	3510.399414
1/10/2008	3311.070068	-3	3495.732422	3510.931641
1/11/2008	3287.340088	-3	3485.08374	3511.197754
1/14/2008	3218.139893	-3	3473.477539	3511.280029
1/15/2008	3154.580078	-3	3460.455078	3510.908447
1/16/2008	3058.48999	-3	3445.553467	3510.044678
1/17/2008	3139.879883	-3	3434.044678	3509.512695
1/18/2008	3104.25	-3	3422.72583	3508.592285
1/21/2008	2917.149902	-3	3407.406982	3506.513184
1/22/2008	2866.550049	-3	3391.277832	3504.116455
1/23/2008	2983.620117	-3	3378.956543	3502.034668
1/24/2008	3050.090088	-3	3369.73584	3500.172119
1/25/2008	3159.47998	-3	3363.416504	3498.866455
1/28/2008	3041.060059	-3	3353.739258	3497.208496
1/29/2008	3049.899902	-3	3345.185547	3495.590088
1/30/2008	3000.030029	-3	3336.366943	3493.519287
1/31/2008	2981.75	-3	3327.767578	3491.351807
2/1/2008	3007.800049	-3	3319.158447	3489.388672
2/4/2008	3077.080078	-3	3313.756348	3488.317871
2/5/2008	3038.419922	-3	3308.266846	3486.706543
2/6/2008	2931.969971	-3	3300.388428	3484.423828
2/11/2008	2868.290039	-3	3289.382813	3481.892822
2/12/2008	2926.22998	-3	3280.454346	3479.710693
2/13/2008	2949.540039	-3	3272.051025	3477.423828
2/14/2008	3045.590088	-3	3263.398438	3475.658447
2/15/2008	3088.679932	-3	3254.746826	3474.295654
2/18/2008	3083.340088	-3	3245.982422	3472.623047
2/19/2008	3098.060059	-3	3237.385986	3470.860352
2/20/2008	3026.830078	-3	3226.72168	3468.565674
2/21/2008	3054.810059	-3	3216.766846	3466.451904
2/22/2008	3048.639893	-3	3206.580566	3464.499268
2/25/2008	3064.949951	-3	3196.817871	3462.560303
2/26/2008	3077.830078	-3	3186.59375	3460.603027
2/27/2008	3094.449951	-3	3177.497559	3458.840576
2/28/2008	3074.149902	-3	3169.394287	3456.705566
2/29/2008	3026.449951	-3	3160.595947	3454.462891
3/3/2008	2926.550049	-3	3152.055664	3451.5896
3/4/2008	2919.679932	-3	3143.062744	3448.560547
3/5/2008	2910.77002	-3	3134.131348	3445.552734
3/6/2008	2917.919922	-3	3124.527832	3442.56958
3/7/2008	2866.280029	-3	3113.162842	3439.202148
3/10/2008	2836.590088	-3	3100.430664	3435.590332
3/11/2008	2860.850098	-3	3088.103516	3432.243164
3/12/2008	2917.939941	-3	3077.545898	3429.399902
3/13/2008	2805.550049	-3	3064.010986	3425.86084
3/14/2008	2839.01001	-3	3051.56665	3422.42041
3/17/2008	2792.75	-3	3039.480225	3418.828369
3/18/2008	2833.580078	-3	3027.395996	3415.254639
3/19/2008	2833.209961	-3	3016.998779	3411.52417
3/20/2008	2824.909912	-3	3006.731934	3407.784424
3/24/2008	2927.790039	-3	2998.396973	3404.604736
3/25/2008	3000.189941	1	2992.179443	3401.874023
3/26/2008	2995.219971	1	2986.336914	3399.39209
3/27/2008	3025.199951	1	2982.478516	3396.791016

Shanghai Market Updates

Shanghai Index (Symbol: 000001) is not showing a good picture.

Date	Close	Phase	50 DMA	200 DMA
1/2/2008	5272.810059	3	5257.520508	4546.415527
1/3/2008	5319.859863	3	5248.450684	4558.19043
1/4/2008	5361.569824	3	5238.819336	4570.467285
1/7/2008	5393.339844	3	5235.438965	4582.675293
1/8/2008	5386.529785	3	5231.376465	4594.955566
1/9/2008	5435.810059	3	5225.133301	4607.062988
1/10/2008	5456.540039	3	5216.319824	4619.18457
1/11/2008	5484.680176	3	5206.918457	4631.320801
1/14/2008	5497.899902	3	5198.590332	4643.45459
1/15/2008	5443.790039	3	5191.909668	4655.301758
1/16/2008	5290.609863	3	5185.032715	4666.140137
1/17/2008	5151.629883	-1	5177.334473	4676.20459
1/18/2008	5180.509766	3	5168.90918	4686.241699
1/21/2008	4914.439941	-1	5160.597656	4694.82666
1/22/2008	4559.75	-2	5145.481934	4701.705078
1/23/2008	4703.049805	-2	5135.788086	4708.958008
1/24/2008	4717.72998	-1	5126.97998	4716.089844
1/25/2008	4761.689941	-1	5113.960449	4723.44043
1/28/2008	4419.290039	-2	5095.041016	4728.941406
1/29/2008	4457.939941	-2	5077.874512	4734.613281
1/30/2008	4417.850098	-2	5060.835449	4739.708008
1/31/2008	4383.390137	-2	5042.629395	4744.403809
2/1/2008	4320.77002	-2	5024.759766	4748.53125
2/4/2008	4672.169922	-2	5018.520508	4754.236816
2/5/2008	4599.700195	-2	5009.871582	4759.644531
2/13/2008	4490.720215	-2	5000.509277	4764.115723
2/14/2008	4552.319824	-2	4994.333496	4768.818359
2/15/2008	4497.129883	-2	4988.208496	4773.241699
2/19/2008	4664.290039	-2	4981.427734	4779.318359
2/20/2008	4567.029785	-2	4975.33252	4784.232422
2/21/2008	4527.180176	-2	4968.503906	4788.313965
2/22/2008	4370.290039	-2	4957.591797	4791.562988
2/25/2008	4192.529785	-2	4940.588867	4793.805664
2/26/2008	4238.180176	-2	4924.651367	4796.081055
2/27/2008	4334.049805	-2	4909.49707	4798.95166
2/28/2008	4299.509766	-2	4892.248535	4801.243652
2/29/2008	4348.540039	-2	4875.718262	4803.236328
3/3/2008	4438.27002	-2	4862.573242	4805.362305
3/4/2008	4335.450195	-2	4850.121094	4806.791016
3/5/2008	4292.649902	-2	4835.816406	4808.145996
3/6/2008	4360.990234	-2	4825.500488	4809.71875
3/7/2008	4300.52002	-2	4814.787598	4811.725098
3/10/2008	4146.299805	-3	4798.87793	4812.526367
3/11/2008	4165.879883	-3	4781.324707	4813.114258
3/12/2008	4070.120117	-3	4760.691406	4813.313965
3/13/2008	3971.26001	-3	4735.431641	4812.808594
3/14/2008	3962.669922	-3	4710.661133	4812.069824
3/17/2008	3820.050049	-3	4682.395508	4810.301758
3/18/2008	3668.899902	-3	4649.595703	4807.890625
3/19/2008	3761.600098	-3	4619.596191	4805.799805
3/20/2008	3804.050049	-3	4590.220703	4803.459473
3/21/2008	3796.580078	-3	4559.755371	4800.767578
3/24/2008	3626.189941	-3	4525.047852	4798.632813

It went into "Bearish" phase on 10 Mar 08. It looks to be just the beginning. If you are looking to buy into China market, I think you can wait a while. Seems like the "Bear" party just started.

US Financial Sector

The current weak market is caused by US sub-prime problem. If you look at the financial sector in US, you can see the cracks appearing back in Aug 2007.


If you look at the iShares US Dow Jones Financial Sector Fund (Symbol IYF), the ETF went into "Bearish" mode on 2 Aug 2007.


It then tried to stage a comeback which coincides with FED cutting interest rate. It never went back to "Bullish" phase and was quickly back to "Bearish" phase. So we are already about 7 months into the financial sector downturn.


The ETF is now at "Recovery" phase and hopefully it can move to "Accumulation" phase.


This fund is invested in top financial names in US. Companies like JP Morgan, Citibank, Bank Of America are companies held by the ETF.

Taiwan Phase Analysis

Another volatile week for the market. Dow had it's shares of wild swings and ended the week up 410.23. Dow is now slightly above its 50 day moving average and according to the defintion of 6 phases, it is now in "Recovery" phase. With most indices still in "Bearish" mode, Dow's performance is actually quite good. One of the more resilient index for this year is the Taiwan TSEC Weighted Index.

Date	Close	Phase	50 DMA	200 DMA
1/2/2008	8323.049805	-2	8686.542969	8674.143555
1/3/2008	8184.200195	-3	8661.375	8676.584961
1/4/2008	8221.099609	-3	8634.431641	8679.091797
1/7/2008	7883.370117	-3	8599.469727	8679.821289
1/8/2008	7962.910156	-3	8562.530273	8680.954102
1/9/2008	8085.060059	-3	8529.072266	8682.594727
1/10/2008	8057.27002	-3	8495.990234	8683.762695
1/11/2008	8029.310059	-3	8464.612305	8684.613281
1/14/2008	8173.410156	-3	8442.618164	8686.09082
1/15/2008	8428.839844	1	8425.023438	8689.008789
1/16/2008	8179.540039	-3	8402.757813	8690.96582
1/17/2008	8101.629883	-3	8378.785156	8692.232422
1/18/2008	8184.649902	-3	8363.726563	8693.733398
1/21/2008	8110.200195	-3	8346.512695	8694.859375
1/22/2008	7581.959961	-3	8324.739258	8693.105469
1/23/2008	7408.399902	-3	8298.363281	8690.124023
1/24/2008	7517.049805	-3	8269.844727	8687.427734
1/25/2008	7739.589844	-3	8246.529297	8685.882813
1/28/2008	7485.790039	-3	8220.949219	8682.889648
1/29/2008	7576.419922	-3	8198.862305	8680.395508
1/30/2008	7543.5	-3	8176.115723	8678.101563
1/31/2008	7521.129883	-3	8156.855469	8675.490234
2/1/2008	7673.990234	-3	8140.347656	8674.063477
2/12/2008	7553.299805	-3	8124.569336	8671.813477
2/13/2008	7550.549805	-3	8105.013672	8670.124023
2/14/2008	7865.279785	-3	8094.804199	8669.737305
2/15/2008	7876.370117	-3	8086.806641	8669.066406
2/19/2008	8024.410156	-3	8078.354492	8668.962891
2/20/2008	7894.470215	-3	8064.515625	8668.511719
2/21/2008	8085.930176	1	8054.557617	8668.941406
2/22/2008	8108.709961	1	8043.706055	8669.738281
2/25/2008	8286.30957	1	8035.893066	8671.793945
2/26/2008	8307.669922	1	8028.158203	8673.817383
2/27/2008	8462.080078	1	8022.952637	8676.495117
2/29/2008	8412.759766	1	8019.24707	8678.228516
3/3/2008	8262.870117	1	8011.737305	8678.96582
3/4/2008	8470.110352	1	8011.323242	8680.837891
3/5/2008	8483.950195	1	8017.242676	8682.994141
3/6/2008	8658.639648	1	8028.053711	8685.802734
3/7/2008	8531.379883	1	8042.064941	8688.301758
3/10/2008	8299.370117	1	8051.904297	8689.646484
3/11/2008	8381.599609	1	8059.250488	8691.679688
3/12/2008	8435.299805	1	8070.814453	8693.912109
3/13/2008	8210.990234	1	8076.205566	8694.77832
3/14/2008	8161.390137	1	8076.723633	8695.414063
3/17/2008	8005.459961	-3	8073.491699	8694.733398
3/18/2008	8057.819824	-3	8071.520508	8694.079102
3/19/2008	8179.350098	1	8068.833008	8693.867188
3/20/2008	8337.620117	1	8067.646973	8694.473633
3/21/2008	8524.990234	1	8068.021484	8696.298828

The index went to "Recovery" phase on 21 Feb 08 and it has been able to stay in "Recovery" mode except for 17 and 18 Mar 08 where the index moved back to "Bearish" phase.

Seems like investors are positive towards the election in Taiwan.

Oil Phase Analysis

Oil has been going up lately. Lets look at United States Oil (USO) a investment fund that seeks to reflect the performance, less expenses, of the spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) light, sweet crude oil. The fund will invest in futures contracts for WTI light, sweet crude oil, other types of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, natural gas and other petroleum based-fuels that are traded on exchanges. It may also invest in other oil interests such as cash-settled options on oil futures contracts, forward contracts for oil, and OTC transactions that are based on the price of oil.



The fund has spent most of the time in "Bullish" phase since July 2007. There were occassional pullback to "Warning" phase but such pullback actually turned out to be buying opportunity.

The graph looks extended at the moment but the trend is still "Bullish".

Shanghai Market Updates

Shanghai Index moved into "Bear" phase on 10 Mar 08. Picture is not looking good.

With Dow crashing on Friday due to Bear Stearns news, Monday is going to be a down day again.

Hang Seng Index went into "Bear" phase on 6 Mar 08. Few days earlier than the Shanghai Index.

All signs point to further downside.

STI Updates

After a rally of 57 points yesterday, STI is now at 2917. The index is still in "Bear" phase. However the good news is the index is now closer to the 50 day moving average of 3077. It is yet to be seen whether the index can climb over this resistance level.

The index has been in "Bear" phase for 44 days since 9 Jan 2008. And if you are a trend follower, then the best strategy is to stay on the sideline and wait for the storm to clear.

KLSE Phase Analysis

Date	Close	Phase	50 DMA	200 DMA
1/2/2008	1435.680054	3	1397.356201	1343.525757
1/3/2008	1435.380005	3	1398.660278	1344.741577
1/4/2008	1466.670044	3	1400.977539	1346.048462
1/7/2008	1470.77002	3	1403.24646	1347.355591
1/8/2008	1489.73999	3	1405.844482	1348.695679
1/9/2008	1491.660034	3	1408.112183	1349.97583
1/11/2008	1516.219971	3	1410.469482	1351.335327
1/14/2008	1507.040039	3	1412.37793	1352.634644
1/15/2008	1505.709961	3	1414.236084	1353.986816
1/16/2008	1453.660034	3	1415.036377	1355.075806
1/17/2008	1460.709961	3	1416.067383	1356.14502
1/18/2008	1439.48999	3	1416.907715	1357.110962
1/21/2008	1408.599976	-1	1417.38501	1357.869629
1/22/2008	1354.47998	-2	1416.692505	1358.285645
1/24/2008	1383.349976	-1	1416.08252	1358.814941
1/25/2008	1405.400024	-1	1416.145508	1359.44751
1/28/2008	1380.540039	-1	1416.109253	1359.858276
1/29/2008	1388.5	-1	1416.210571	1360.269043
1/30/2008	1384.079956	-1	1416.200684	1360.658447
1/31/2008	1393.25	-1	1416.265625	1361.088867
2/1/2008	1393.25	-1	1416.397827	1361.514038
2/4/2008	1419.660034	3	1417.192871	1361.997803
2/5/2008	1432.349976	3	1418.40564	1362.508423
2/6/2008	1415.939941	-1	1419.527466	1362.944946
2/8/2008	1415.939941	-1	1420.963135	1363.492676
2/11/2008	1407.380005	-1	1422.039795	1363.952637
2/12/2008	1417.52002	-1	1423.102783	1364.433228
2/13/2008	1423.150024	-1	1424.265991	1364.961548
2/14/2008	1436.099976	3	1425.656616	1365.562134
2/15/2008	1427.189941	3	1426.713867	1366.074219
2/19/2008	1425.48999	-1	1427.28418	1366.590454
2/20/2008	1414.319946	-1	1427.183716	1366.948242
2/21/2008	1394.76001	-1	1426.762817	1367.10498
2/22/2008	1369.47998	-1	1425.596924	1367.125977
2/25/2008	1370.790039	-1	1424.204834	1367.206543
2/26/2008	1375.430054	-1	1423.032715	1367.329346
2/27/2008	1376.619995	-1	1422.062378	1367.434204
2/28/2008	1368.27002	-1	1420.744629	1367.518311
2/29/2008	1357.400024	-2	1419.418335	1367.507324
3/3/2008	1330.609985	-2	1417.819214	1367.430176
3/4/2008	1314.02002	-2	1416.031616	1367.238281
3/5/2008	1280.22998	-2	1413.804077	1366.842529
3/6/2008	1299.689941	-2	1412.088745	1366.556519
3/7/2008	1296.329956	-2	1410.27124	1366.30249
3/10/2008	1173.219971	-2	1405.664429	1365.331055

KLSE closed down nearly 10% yesterday. It is yet to be seen how the political scene in Malaysia will turn out to be. But investors are definitely playing it safe by taking profit off the table. KLSE is one of the few markets that has not tested the "Bear" phase so far. Let's hope it can stay that way.

Hang Seng Index Phase Analysis

Date	Close	Phase	50 DMA	200 DMA
1/2/2008	27560.51953	-1	28496.13086	24070.37695
1/3/2008	26887.2793	-1	28466.40234	24108.02734
1/4/2008	27519.68945	-1	28429.25781	24148.04492
1/7/2008	27179.49023	-1	28386.17773	24185.49219
1/8/2008	27112.90039	-1	28331.34766	24222.5957
1/9/2008	27615.84961	-1	28275.56055	24261.83984
1/10/2008	27230.85938	-1	28188.43945	24299.46094
1/11/2008	26867.00977	-1	28093.01563	24336.02734
1/14/2008	26468.13086	-1	27995.32227	24369.25781
1/15/2008	25837.7793	-1	27882.22266	24399.43945
1/16/2008	24450.84961	-1	27761.86914	24422.64844
1/17/2008	25114.98047	-1	27685.32227	24448.21094
1/18/2008	25201.86914	-1	27600.59961	24473.17188
1/21/2008	23818.85938	-2	27482.79688	24490.52734
1/22/2008	21757.63086	-2	27342.74414	24497.07031
1/23/2008	24090.16992	-2	27248.88281	24515.61914
1/24/2008	23539.26953	-2	27166.35156	24531.61523
1/25/2008	25122.36914	-1	27112.73242	24553.4375
1/28/2008	24053.60938	-2	27010.48438	24569.75977
1/29/2008	24291.80078	-2	26921.29492	24587.33594
1/30/2008	23653.68945	-2	26842.08203	24604.10156
1/31/2008	23455.74023	-2	26761.99219	24618.55078
2/1/2008	24123.58008	-2	26689.03906	24636.38281
2/4/2008	25032.08008	-1	26657.31836	24658.67773
2/5/2008	24808.69922	-1	26633.39258	24680.03711
2/6/2008	23469.46094	-2	26571.95703	24694.05078
2/11/2008	22616.10938	-2	26471.74805	24704.49805
2/12/2008	22921.66992	-2	26385.97656	24717.50781
2/13/2008	23169.55078	-2	26301.94531	24731.76172
2/14/2008	24021.67969	-2	26212.72656	24749.92578
2/15/2008	24148.42969	-2	26122.82422	24767.26172
2/19/2008	24123.16992	-2	26032.11914	24783.67188
2/20/2008	23590.58008	-2	25926.3418	24797.14453
2/21/2008	23623	-2	25811.89258	24811.72656
2/22/2008	23305.03906	-2	25686.81836	24824.02734
2/25/2008	23269.14063	-2	25575.34961	24836.63477
2/26/2008	23714.75	-2	25479.62305	24852.86914
2/27/2008	24483.83984	-2	25384.75977	24870.39453
2/28/2008	24591.68945	-2	25306.17578	24889.00977
2/29/2008	24331.66992	-2	25237.91406	24905.98242
3/3/2008	23584.9707	-2	25158.3418	24918.93555
3/4/2008	23119.86914	-2	25088.80664	24930.00977
3/5/2008	23114.33984	-2	25016.4375	24940.94336
3/6/2008	23342.73047	-3	24942.70703	24953.4375
3/7/2008	22501.33008	-3	24852.39063	24961.95313

After struggling since Dec 2007, the Hang Seng Index finally broke into "Bear" phase on Thurs. The last time the index hit the "Bear" phase was in May 2004. That phase lasted for approximately 3 months with the index moving into "Accumulation" phase in Aug 2004.

Most investors doesn't like the "Bear" word but charts never lie. The market is telling us that the "Bear" is here to stay. If you think history will repeat itself, then you are looking at Jun 2008 for a recovery.

Trade with care.

STI Phase Analysis Updates

STI is still in Bear phase. If you look at the charts, the STI Bulls had a good time few years back. It is yet to be seen whether this Bear stage will be a short or long one. But judging from problems we still have in US, it may take 6 months or more for the market to starting turning up.

KLSE Phase Analysis

Date	Close	Phase	50 DMA	200 DMA
1/2/2008	1435.680054	3	1397.356201	1343.525757
1/3/2008	1435.380005	3	1398.660278	1344.741577
1/4/2008	1466.670044	3	1400.977539	1346.048462
1/7/2008	1470.77002	3	1403.24646	1347.355591
1/8/2008	1489.73999	3	1405.844482	1348.695679
1/9/2008	1491.660034	3	1408.112183	1349.97583
1/11/2008	1516.219971	3	1410.469482	1351.335327
1/14/2008	1507.040039	3	1412.37793	1352.634644
1/15/2008	1505.709961	3	1414.236084	1353.986816
1/16/2008	1453.660034	3	1415.036377	1355.075806
1/17/2008	1460.709961	3	1416.067383	1356.14502
1/18/2008	1439.48999	3	1416.907715	1357.110962
1/21/2008	1408.599976	-1	1417.38501	1357.869629
1/22/2008	1354.47998	-2	1416.692505	1358.285645
1/24/2008	1383.349976	-1	1416.08252	1358.814941
1/25/2008	1405.400024	-1	1416.145508	1359.44751
1/28/2008	1380.540039	-1	1416.109253	1359.858276
1/29/2008	1388.5	-1	1416.210571	1360.269043
1/30/2008	1384.079956	-1	1416.200684	1360.658447
1/31/2008	1393.25	-1	1416.265625	1361.088867
2/1/2008	1393.25	-1	1416.397827	1361.514038
2/4/2008	1419.660034	3	1417.192871	1361.997803
2/5/2008	1432.349976	3	1418.40564	1362.508423
2/6/2008	1415.939941	-1	1419.527466	1362.944946
2/8/2008	1415.939941	-1	1420.963135	1363.492676
2/11/2008	1407.380005	-1	1422.039795	1363.952637
2/12/2008	1417.52002	-1	1423.102783	1364.433228
2/13/2008	1423.150024	-1	1424.265991	1364.961548
2/14/2008	1436.099976	3	1425.656616	1365.562134
2/15/2008	1427.189941	3	1426.713867	1366.074219
2/19/2008	1425.48999	-1	1427.28418	1366.590454
2/20/2008	1414.319946	-1	1427.183716	1366.948242
2/21/2008	1394.76001	-1	1426.762817	1367.10498
2/22/2008	1369.47998	-1	1425.596924	1367.125977
2/25/2008	1370.790039	-1	1424.204834	1367.206543
2/26/2008	1375.430054	-1	1423.032715	1367.329346
2/27/2008	1376.619995	-1	1422.062378	1367.434204
2/28/2008	1368.27002	-1	1420.744629	1367.518311
2/29/2008	1357.400024	-2	1419.418335	1367.507324

Malaysia KLSE is one of the more resilient market so far this year. The KLSE index have not tested the "Bear" phase so far. It is one of the favourite market among fund managers. May be worth taking a look if you are keen in investing now and do not know where to put your money.

GOLD Phase Analysis

Gold has been on an uptrend since 2005. Look at the graphs of streetTracks Gold Fund, an ETF that follows the price of gold bullion.




It has been almost a one way traffic for Gold price since 2005. In August last year, it went down to "Warining" and "Distribution" phase but the bears weren't successful in pushing the price to the "Bearish" stage.

And with USD getting weaker and US FED cutting rates, the chances of Gold going higher is definitely high.

So congratulations to those that are vested in Gold. The trend is definitely on your side.

DOW Phase Analysis

Date	Close	Phase	50 DMA	200 DMA
1/2/2008	13043.95996	-2	13367.72852	13360.86133
1/3/2008	13056.71973	-3	13357.52246	13364.70508
1/4/2008	12800.17969	-3	13340	13366.46875
1/7/2008	12827.49023	-3	13323.04492	13368.2998
1/8/2008	12589.07031	-3	13301.38867	13368.83984
1/9/2008	12735.30957	-3	13279.96094	13370.1709
1/10/2008	12853.08984	-3	13259.61719	13372.4502
1/11/2008	12606.2998	-3	13235.89355	13373.98047
1/14/2008	12778.15039	-3	13212.85645	13376.12598
1/15/2008	12501.11035	-3	13191.52246	13376.86133
1/16/2008	12466.16016	-3	13168.94336	13377.28027
1/17/2008	12159.20996	-3	13141.25977	13375.52246
1/18/2008	12099.2998	-3	13110.02734	13373.36914
1/22/2008	11971.19043	-3	13083.45117	13370.4209
1/23/2008	12270.16992	-3	13063.52832	13368.92578
1/24/2008	12378.61035	-3	13050.24512	13367.9502
1/25/2008	12207.16992	-3	13034.6377	13366.5625
1/28/2008	12383.88965	-3	13016.1748	13365.71582
1/29/2008	12480.2998	-3	13001.16016	13365.05664
1/30/2008	12442.83008	-3	12987.81641	13363.66895
1/31/2008	12650.36035	-3	12977.28711	13363.05664
2/1/2008	12743.19043	-3	12972.98242	13362.75391
2/4/2008	12635.16016	-3	12965.4834	13361.88672
2/5/2008	12265.12988	-3	12954.80469	13358.40137
2/6/2008	12200.09961	-3	12939.18848	13354.80469
2/7/2008	12247	-3	12929.25977	13351.26953
2/8/2008	12182.12988	-3	12913.73242	13346.73047
2/11/2008	12240.00977	-3	12892.74414	13342.40234
2/12/2008	12373.41016	-3	12873.97754	13338.66504
2/13/2008	12552.24023	-3	12857.58594	13336.11133
2/14/2008	12376.98047	-3	12838.83496	13332.31543
2/15/2008	12348.20996	-3	12820.8252	13327.99609
2/19/2008	12337.21973	-3	12798.6709	13323.47461
2/20/2008	12427.25977	-3	12774.81836	13319.28906
2/21/2008	12284.2998	-3	12747.99414	13314.14453
2/22/2008	12381.01953	-3	12721.07227	13309.50488
2/25/2008	12570.21973	-3	12703.82227	13305.54297
2/26/2008	12684.91992	-3	12688.04395	13302.8916
2/27/2008	12694.28027	1	12671.57031	13299.73047
2/28/2008	12582.17969	-3	12656.41602	13295.90723
2/29/2008	12266.38965	-3	12638.40137	13290.32031

On 27 Feb 08, the DOW manages to climb out of "Bearish" phase. However, the momentum could not be sustained. On Friday, Dow closed down 315 points. The bears are still in control and it is still not easy to make money on the Buy side.

The economic picture looks gloomy and the only good news so far has been Mr Ben Bernake willingness to cut interest rate further. However with inflation creeping up, he is slowly running out of bullets to help this market.

March will be another volatile month. Trade with care!