Legend For Phase Chart:
1: Recovery-1: Warning
2: Accumulation-2: Distribution
3: Bullish-3: Bearish

Thursday, June 18, 2009

The Trend Of Oil Price




The price of crude oil ended near the $70 mark per barrel. The price of oil is one of the determining factors that influence the movement of stock market. When the price is too high, the fear of inflation kicks in. When the price is too low, market participant infer that demand for oil is low which gives the perception the economy is slowing down.

Such is the love and hate relationship that market participant has with oil price.

Looking at the phase chart of USO (United State Oil ETF), the price of oil is facing the 200 day moving average resistance level. The price is sandwiched between the 200 day and 50 day moving average. It is still in “Recovery” phase.

If the price is able to bounce off from the 50 day moving average, it will be a sign that investors are betting on higher oil price in the coming months. Looking at the technical charts, oil price should have further upside.

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