Nikkei 225 Update

The USDJPY currency pair recovered some of its previous day losses and broke the 91 level before settling at 90.45. Weakness in the Yen is usually good news for Japan’s stock market as it helps in making Japanese product more competitive.

Most investors are not positive on Japan’s stock market as the country continues to be plagued by an aging population and deflationary forces in the market.

However looking at the phase chart, the Nikkei 225 is still in “Bullish” mode. The index faces a major resistance at 11000 level. If it is not able to go above the 11000 level then the support at 9867 needs to hold. If this support level is broken, then we will have a lower high and lower low. According to Dow theory, that will be bearish for the market.

Nikkei225 Update

The land of the rising sun looks brighter for the past few weeks. The Nikkei 225 index moved into “Recovery” phase since the beginning of Apr 08.

The index has stayed in “Recovery” phase for 28 trading days. It is now above its 50 day moving average. The 200 day moving average is now at 14,963. The immediate support for the index is at 14,000 points.

Nikkei 225 Phase Analysis

Date	Close	Phase	50 DMA	200 DMA
1/4/2008	14691.41016	-3	15708.10254	16883.99414
1/7/2008	14500.5498	-3	15661.8252	16870.60156
1/8/2008	14528.66992	-3	15623.62891	16859.85938
1/9/2008	14599.16016	-3	15586.59961	16848.55469
1/10/2008	14388.11035	-3	15547.19531	16836.77344
1/11/2008	14110.79004	-3	15503.72656	16822.2793
1/15/2008	13972.62988	-3	15453.06641	16806.32617
1/16/2008	13504.50977	-3	15389.19629	16786.75195
1/17/2008	13783.4502	-3	15331.84473	16768.26758
1/18/2008	13861.29004	-3	15274.31738	16749.96289
1/21/2008	13325.94043	-3	15203.42871	16729.76953
1/22/2008	12573.0498	-3	15124.54004	16706.36133
1/23/2008	12829.05957	-3	15055.74121	16684.18555
1/24/2008	13092.78027	-3	14992.60547	16663.21094
1/25/2008	13629.16016	-3	14943.25391	16646.21484
1/28/2008	13087.91016	-3	14889.58105	16625.43359
1/29/2008	13478.86035	-3	14847.49023	16605.10938
1/30/2008	13345.03027	-3	14810.4502	16584.37695
1/31/2008	13592.46973	-3	14779.7666	16564.91406
2/1/2008	13497.16016	-3	14739.71875	16543.68164
2/4/2008	13859.7002	-3	14708.98633	16524.6543
2/5/2008	13745.5	-3	14680.80273	16505.0332
2/6/2008	13099.24023	-3	14641.9375	16482.82813
2/7/2008	13207.15039	-3	14601.84961	16462.04297
2/8/2008	13017.24023	-3	14565.44238	16438.99023
2/12/2008	13021.95996	-3	14528.10645	16416.46094
2/13/2008	13068.2998	-3	14486.76758	16393.4668
2/14/2008	13626.4502	-3	14454.83887	16374.73828
2/15/2008	13622.55957	-3	14424.21484	16355.58887
2/19/2008	13757.91016	-3	14389.09766	16337.10254
2/20/2008	13310.37012	-3	14341.69238	16316.39648
2/21/2008	13688.28027	-3	14302.87793	16298.65625
2/22/2008	13500.45996	-3	14263.28223	16279.01172
2/25/2008	13914.57031	-3	14229.39746	16261.58203

Nikkei 225 is also in Bearish phase. However, it is now about 300 points away from the 50 day moving average. Once the close goes above the 50 day moving average, we will move into "Recovery" mode. So those that are short in Nikkei need to be careful.